After posting some incorrect calculations (that, in hindsight, don't make sense) in another thread, I realized my error..I forgot to convert decimals to percentages.

I've calculated and recalculated these values in particular, so here they are:

The chance of finding a shiny starter is A + B + C, where A is the chance of one pokemon being shiny, B is the chance of two starters being shiny, and C is the chance of all three starters being shiny.

The chances of B and C happening are almost negligible, but for the sake of accuracy (and lowering the estimated amount of time), I will incorporate these values. (for the records, the chance of finding one shiny pokemon is 1/8192.

A = 0.00000000018189894

B = 0.00000148993422000

C = 0.01220405120000000

(these are all probabilities)

Therefore, the probability of finding one shiny starter is 0.01220554131611894%.

Each soft reset gives you that chance of finding one. Now, with a bit more calculations, we can determine the approximate number of tries it'll take to find a shiny starter.

To do this simply, just enter XX/0.01220554131611894 into google, where XX is the percent you want.

For example..

After your 4,096th reset, you're more likely than not to have found a starter by this point.

After 7,373 resets, there's a 90% chance that you'll have found a shiny starter.

Just 800 more, and you have a 99% chance..you're basically guaranteed to find one by this point.

Now for how long this will take... I'm not sure. What I would like is if someone could tell me what the exact steps are for finding a shiny starter. Can you save before examining all three pokeballs, check all three, reset and repeat? Or is the shininess of a starter determined at an earlier point?

Anyways, one poster said you can get three soft resets done in a minute. If you divide the number of tries by three, you'll get how many minutes it'll take. Then divide by 60, and that's how many hours of soft resetting it'll take. Of course, it doesn't have to be done all at once.

For example..

At about 21 hours, you're more likely than not to have found one.

But it could take 45 hours if you're /really/ unlucky, and don't have one by being in the 99% confidence interval (which I believe is the correct term)..

Personally, I can't decide on a starter, so I'm deciding on using this method to pick one. I'm in no rush to start the game, and if I spend about three hours a day on it, I could be playing through the game in two weeks (which I had set as my maximum).

Again, if anyone has the exact steps to finding a shiny starter, it'd be greatly appreciated.

"i pooped in donkey kong country and it had no floor either." - Drag0nX777