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  2. Pokemon HeartGold Version
  3. The chance of finding a shiny starter (and how long it could take!)

User Info: Oak_Tea

9 years ago#1
After posting some incorrect calculations (that, in hindsight, don't make sense) in another thread, I realized my error..I forgot to convert decimals to percentages.

I've calculated and recalculated these values in particular, so here they are:
The chance of finding a shiny starter is A + B + C, where A is the chance of one pokemon being shiny, B is the chance of two starters being shiny, and C is the chance of all three starters being shiny.
The chances of B and C happening are almost negligible, but for the sake of accuracy (and lowering the estimated amount of time), I will incorporate these values. (for the records, the chance of finding one shiny pokemon is 1/8192.

A = 0.00000000018189894
B = 0.00000148993422000
C = 0.01220405120000000
(these are all probabilities)

Therefore, the probability of finding one shiny starter is 0.01220554131611894%.

Each soft reset gives you that chance of finding one. Now, with a bit more calculations, we can determine the approximate number of tries it'll take to find a shiny starter.
To do this simply, just enter XX/0.01220554131611894 into google, where XX is the percent you want.

For example..

After your 4,096th reset, you're more likely than not to have found a starter by this point.
After 7,373 resets, there's a 90% chance that you'll have found a shiny starter.
Just 800 more, and you have a 99% chance..you're basically guaranteed to find one by this point.

Now for how long this will take... I'm not sure. What I would like is if someone could tell me what the exact steps are for finding a shiny starter. Can you save before examining all three pokeballs, check all three, reset and repeat? Or is the shininess of a starter determined at an earlier point?

Anyways, one poster said you can get three soft resets done in a minute. If you divide the number of tries by three, you'll get how many minutes it'll take. Then divide by 60, and that's how many hours of soft resetting it'll take. Of course, it doesn't have to be done all at once.

For example..

At about 21 hours, you're more likely than not to have found one.
But it could take 45 hours if you're /really/ unlucky, and don't have one by being in the 99% confidence interval (which I believe is the correct term)..

Personally, I can't decide on a starter, so I'm deciding on using this method to pick one. I'm in no rush to start the game, and if I spend about three hours a day on it, I could be playing through the game in two weeks (which I had set as my maximum).

Again, if anyone has the exact steps to finding a shiny starter, it'd be greatly appreciated.
"i pooped in donkey kong country and it had no floor either." - Drag0nX777

User Info: BadAzzOG619

9 years ago#2
Orrrrrrrr, we can say that you either get a shiny or you don't.

User Info: datdimfb

9 years ago#3
You need to save right before choosing from the 3 Poke Balls. And then you SR when you see your starter behind you for the first time.

User Info: CrazyEyes31

9 years ago#4

User Info: agoogua

9 years ago#5
how many SRs would it take for all three starters to be shiny?
PKMN Platinum Friend Code: FC: Dave 3652 9687 1064
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User Info: kudibikes

9 years ago#6
But don't the chances of finding a starter reset every time, making it so no matter how many times you soft reset you will always have the same percent of chance of getting a shiny?
Remember that arrozbatata guy? He was cool

User Info: Ampharos64

9 years ago#7
Interesting, good luck in your search. I'm pretty sure you could save right before checking, I saved then SR for my Cyndaquil's nature anyway (it took an hour to get a Rash one >_<). It doesn't sound too bad like that...at least until you look at the number of SR's required (I've been trying for two weeks to hatch a Eevee with three perfect IVs, and that's a 1/120 chance with the parents I have...).
I really want a shiny Lugia, myself, not sure how the percentages work out for that.
Pokemon Platinum: 4340 0070 7056
Member of the Evolution Trade Station

User Info: Ampharos64

9 years ago#8
^ Spent about two hours a day on the Eevee, too (hatching the same egg so the nature is set and it's female). >_<
Pokemon Platinum: 4340 0070 7056
Member of the Evolution Trade Station

User Info: Shadowater68

9 years ago#9
Ampharos64: Erm, the Nature, Gender, Ability, and Shininess are all determined at the same time...
I am a furry, and I think Pikachu is Hot. Deal with it.
Platinum: Eric - 2879 5464 6336 ~Other Friend Codes in Quote~

User Info: Ampharos64

9 years ago#10
^ Yep, I know, but not IVs, which are what I'm going for with her, three perfect. Wanted to see how good an Eevee I could breed without cheating (now I understand why people abuse the RNG for IVs). : )
Pokemon Platinum: 4340 0070 7056
Member of the Evolution Trade Station
  1. Boards
  2. Pokemon HeartGold Version
  3. The chance of finding a shiny starter (and how long it could take!)
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