League of Legends

Riot has confirmed that all Blue Essence in your crafting inventory will be multiplied by 6.5 when they're merging IP and Blue Essence in pre-season.

Champion shards yield different Blue Essence values when you disenchant them, based on the champion price.
450 IP champions yield 87 Blue Essence
1350 IP champions yield 195 Blue Essence
3150 IP champions yield 263 Blue Essence
4800 IP champions yield 293 Blue Essence
6300 IP champions yield 325 Blue Essence

When you factor in the 6.5x multiplication factor that will occur in pre-season, champion shard Blue Essence yields are as follows:
450 IP champions yield 87x6.5= 565.5 Blue Essence
1350 IP champions yield 195x6.5= 1267.5 Blue Essence
3150 IP champions yield 263x6.5= 1709.5 Blue Essence
4800 IP champions yield 293x6.5= 1904.5 Blue Essence
6300 IP champions yield 325x6.5= 2112.5 Blue Essence

Now take into account that a Mystery Champion Shard costs 1700 IP in the shop. As a result, the profit/loss for each champ price category would be as follows:
450 IP champions yield 87x6.5= 565.5-1700= -1134.5 Essence (net loss)
1350 IP champions yield 195x6.5= 1267.5-1700= -432.5 Essence (net loss)
3150 IP champions yield 263x6.5= 1709.5-1700= 9.5 Essence (net gain)
4800 IP champions yield 293x6.5= 1904.5-1700= 204.5 Essence (net gain)
6300 IP champions yield 325x6.5= 2112.5-1700= 412.5 Essence (net gain)

Now let's look at what our odds are.
There are 13 champions that are worth 450 IP (Amumu, Annie, Ashe, Garen, Kayle, Master Yi, Nunu, Poppy, Ryze, Singed, Sivir, Soraka and Warwick). That's around 9.5% of the champion total.

There are 22 champions that are worth 1350 IP (Udyr, Tristana, Tryndamere, Twisted Fate, Morgana, Mordekaiser, Nasus, Rammus, Sion, Evelynn, Fiddlesticks, Cho'Gath, Dr. Mundo, Alistar, Jax, Janna, Malphite, Zilean, Taric, Teemo, Veigar and Xin Zhao). That's around 16% of the champion total.

There are 24 champions that are worth 3150 IP (Twitch, Urgot, Pantheon, Olaf, Miss Fortune, Nidalee, Shen, Shyvana, Shaco, Sona, Gangplank, Galio, Corki, Anivia, Akali, Blitzcrank, Kassadin, Karthus, Karma, Heimerdinger, Gragas, Katarina, Lux and LeBlanc). That's around 17.4% of the champion total.

There are 47 champions that are worth 4800 IP (Talon, Trundle, Varus, Vayne, Orianna, Nocturne, Nautilus, Renekton, Rengar, Riven, Rumble, Sejuani, Skarner, Fizz, Ezreal, Fiora, Diana, Elise, Draven, Darius, Brand, Ahri, Cassiopeia, Caitlyn, Jayce, Jarvan IV, Lulu, Malzahar, Maokai, Hecarim, Leona, Lee Sin, Kennen, Kha'Zix, Kog'Maw, Irelia, Graves, Xerath, Viktor, Yorick, Volibear, Wukong, Vladimir, Swain, Ziggs, Zyra and Syndra). That's around 34.1% of the champion total.

There are 32 champions that are worth 6300 IP (Bard, Braum, Camille, Ekko, Ornn, Gnar, Illaoi, Jinx, Yasuo, Vel'Koz, Rek'Sai, Aurelion Sol, Ivern, Jhin, Kled, Taliyah, Xayah, Rakan, Kalista, Kayn, Lissandra, Kindred, Zac, Quinn, Lucian, Azir, Nami, Tahm Kench, Vi, Aatrox, Thresh and Zed). That's around 23.2% of the champion total.

So, assuming Mystery Champion Shard category distributions are entirely even, these are your odds:
9.5% chance of a 1134.5 Essence loss
16% chance of a 432.5 Essence loss
17.4% chance of a 9.5 Essence gain
34.1% chance of a 204.5 Essence gain
23.2% chance of a 412.5 Essence gain

The odds of gaining Essence by buying a Mystery Champ Shard and disenchanting it are almost 75%. Add to that the fact that every now and then, you get a little extra bonus Blue Essence when you buy a Mystery Champion Shard, and you could surely make a net profit in the long run by investing all your IP in Mystery Champion Shards.

Thank you for your time.

Bump for nerdery.

Also request this topic to be stickied please.

This reads like one of those "BUY GOLD NOW GOD DAMNIT!" commercials.

.........................that said I did just spend all my IP on champ shards. :^)

I'm a gambling man, I'll take those odds

Just to provide a post with results, I just spent all the IP I had on 23 Mystery Champion Shards. What I got will be posted in a bit.

Results are in! I'm just a poor boy so I could only gamble 9 times.

1 Fizz
2 Rek'Sais
1 Shaco
1 Twitch
1 Zyra
1 Tali
1 Xerath
And 1 Illaoi.

According to the chart, that's no losses. Out of the 9 shots, only 2 were minimal gains...that double Rek'Sai was certainly nice, as was the Tali and Illaoi. All in all I got a pretty good haul! :^)

Grand total: 2705 (not counting the handful of free blue essence I got while forging...didn't keep track of that). x6.5 = 17582. A humble sum considering I didn't have much to work with in the first place.

40k IP to use. This is gonna take a while.

It seems that you always get a certain amount of Blue Essence based on the champ's price category when forging the shard. Have to add that data to the main post.

Just wanna say Good luck to everyone. Went from 20k ip to 33k BE after the patch.