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User Info: IfGodCouldDie

IfGodCouldDie
4 weeks ago#11
Opening night I mean.
Mind post. XBL:Cyanide Sucker PSN:Paters1 IGN:SuperPattyCakes FC: SW-1615-6159-5504

User Info: MetalmindStats

MetalmindStats
4 weeks ago#12
scarletspeed7 posted...
If the US pulls 300 mil for Detective Pikachu, which I saw as a prediction, 800 is a shoo-in. But I don't k ow how it plays against Avengers.

Currently, the industry's domestic predictions are a $50 million opening weekend from tracking, and $250 million total from Box Office Pro, which does their own long-range forecasts. Some of the people who are particularly high on its potential like to point to fellow nostalgia-harnesser Jurassic World as an example of such sources being totally off, but Jurassic World was a particularly extreme case.

For the reasoning behind my current prediction, there is room to play against Endgame and even the likes of Aladdin, but not a ton of it. In addition, it doesn't seem like the hype (past that first trailer) has extended too much beyond the internet, though that might just be my skewed perspective. International box office should be solid, but I'm actually thinking lower than most people. 300 / 500 sounds about right to me given how Pokémon is a rather weaker brand outside North America and Japan, the latter of which may not take to this Hollywoodized version. A few weeks back, I was thinking it could hit $1 billion, but I don't think the hype has quite built in the way it should have for such a lofty prediction.

Also as far as predictions go, it really depends on which source you're drawing from. Some people have unironically touted as much as $1.5-2 billion as likely, thus my mention of the sheer variability.
Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!
(edited 4 weeks ago)

User Info: scarletspeed7

scarletspeed7
4 weeks ago#13
I REALLY don't think it's going to top a billion. It would be really interesting to see something new (relative to major movie franchises) blow into town while up against to Disney tentpole films and just knock it down, but I feel like 300 is the slightly generous number. And it's impressive, again, because it's sitting right there in between Avengers and Aladdin, both of which I think cater to the same demos as Pikachu.

I don't know how a worldwide market plays with three movies of that nature at all. That's a pretty new situation.
"It is too easy being monsters. Let us try to be human." ~Victor Frankenstein, Penny Dreadful

User Info: MetalmindStats

MetalmindStats
4 weeks ago#14
scarletspeed7 posted...
I REALLY don't think it's going to top a billion. It would be really interesting to see something new (relative to major movie franchises) blow into town while up against to Disney tentpole films and just knock it down, but I feel like 300 is the slightly generous number. And it's impressive, again, because it's sitting right there in between Avengers and Aladdin, both of which I think cater to the same demos as Pikachu.

I don't know how a worldwide market plays with three movies of that nature at all. That's a pretty new situation.

Yep, even $800 million would be spectacularly impressive for Detective Pikachu. Also, I think the closest comparison to this May's madhouse worldwide scheduling would be 2013, coincidentally the last year the days of the week lined up.

Iron Man 3 opened on May 3 in North America, and a week earlier in most of the rest of the world, and grossed $1.21 billion worldwide. Star Trek Into Darkness opened on May 16 in North America, and a week earlier in parts of the world, and finished with $467 million. Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III both opened against each other over Memorial Day weekend. The former hit most of the rest of the world day-and-date and made $789 million, while the latter opened a week later in most other regions and grossed $362 million, saved by the international box office. Epic and The Great Gatsby were also in worldwide play at that time, but neither really catered to the same audiences as the aforementioned four.
Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!
(edited 4 weeks ago)

User Info: scarletspeed7

scarletspeed7
4 weeks ago#15
Oh, good example. All I could think of was the weekend where Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks all opened at the same time. I think it ended up being one of the biggest weekends in history, and somehow they didn't overlap audiences (at least that we know of). So I guess the potential is there. It was a Christmas weekend, I believe, so that might explain people returning multiple times to the theaters.

Also, it's not really accounting for worldwide numbers because the worldwide market didn't start blowing open until early-mid 2010s. I think Avatar and Dark Knight really launched it, though.
"It is too easy being monsters. Let us try to be human." ~Victor Frankenstein, Penny Dreadful

User Info: MetalmindStats

MetalmindStats
4 weeks ago#16
scarletspeed7 posted...
Oh, good example. All I could think of was the weekend where Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks all opened at the same time. I think it ended up being one of the biggest weekends in history, and somehow they didn't overlap audiences (at least that we know of). So I guess the potential is there. It was a Christmas weekend, I believe, so that might explain people returning multiple times to the theaters.

Also, it's not really accounting for worldwide numbers because the worldwide market didn't start blowing open until early-mid 2010s. I think Avatar and Dark Knight really launched it, though.

Technically, Avatar opened a week earlier, but yes, that weekend was anchored by Christmas, thus why there was abundant space for all three movies to succeed at the same time, ultimately becoming the highest-grossing weekend ever at the time. Outside of North America, Sherlock Holmes didn't open in most places over Christmas 2009, just leaving the other two movies, with their mostly different audiences. This May is a lot like May 2013 in that there's no hugely important holidays in North America or the major international markets to propel the likes of Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla to extra numbers.

The way I like to think of the trajectory of international box office is this: Jurassic Park invented the international box office as something more relevant than essentially just another ancillary market (not that movies couldn't succeed internationally before, but it represented a sea change in tailoring releasing and promotion strategies). Titanic demonstrated the potential of stories that really resonate to break all the international records, and with market growth in now-established countries such as Australia through the 90s, it was probably the transition point when it started becoming commonplace for blockbusters to exceed 50% of their worldwide box office outside of North America. Avatar, and the 3D resurgence that came with it, was the revolutionary difference-maker that rendered international box office outright more important than North American box office for blockbusters - particularly with its $200 million in China, where no previous Hollywood movie had even made $50 million. I don't think The Dark Knight was particularly important or influential outside of North America in box office terms, though. It essentially played as just another blockbuster internationally, finishing with less than 50% of its worldwide gross outside of North America. It also barely took 2008's international title, just $200,000 ahead of Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and only $4 million above Mamma Mia!, of all things.
Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!
(edited 4 weeks ago)

User Info: scarletspeed7

scarletspeed7
4 weeks ago#17
Dark Knight I point out because it supposedly did the biggest DVD sales overseas of a movie at that point. And then you have Marvel coming in afterwards and marketing much harder overseas - mix that with Disney's bigger animation pushes, and it normalized the general blockbuster market as an international staple. Now, movies are virtually identical on year-end domestic and international lists with one or two exceptions each year. Prior to 2008, it was very slowly trending that way. After 2008, it rapidly explodes.
"It is too easy being monsters. Let us try to be human." ~Victor Frankenstein, Penny Dreadful

User Info: MetalmindStats

MetalmindStats
4 weeks ago#18
scarletspeed7 posted...
Dark Knight I point out because it supposedly did the biggest DVD sales overseas of a movie at that point. And then you have Marvel coming in afterwards and marketing much harder overseas - mix that with Disney's bigger animation pushes, and it normalized the general blockbuster market as an international staple. Now, movies are virtually identical on year-end domestic and international lists with one or two exceptions each year. Prior to 2008, it was very slowly trending that way. After 2008, it rapidly explodes.

Yeah, that's fair. I don't generally consider such ancillary market info when reckoning box office trends because it's much more difficult to pin down than box office info, but that's certainly an important piece of the puzzle.
Hail the reigning Guru champ, Advokaiser!
You proved yourself more statistically metal-minded than I ever have been - well done!

User Info: scarletspeed7

scarletspeed7
4 weeks ago#19
Yeah, I wouldn't normally play it up, but certain major differences in success are things I pay attention to. Sort of like how Friends and The Office remain in the top ten most streamed shows still; I pay attention to odd things like that.
"It is too easy being monsters. Let us try to be human." ~Victor Frankenstein, Penny Dreadful

User Info: Raka_Putra

Raka_Putra
4 weeks ago#20
I'm gonna watch Endgame on the 25th! Would have gone on the premiere on the 24th but I had another thing for that day. Going solo first since tickets are scarce as they are.
I don't wanna show off no more.
Play the saucy Swiss miss no more.
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