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  3. Rep. Suozzi running for NY governor instead of re-election
Starks 1 month ago#1
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/29/nyregion/tom-suozzi-governor-ny.html

Have fun embarrassing yourself against Hochul and putting your seat at risk to flip red.

Wonder who the local party boss will prop up over the progressive candidate.
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TheFuzz3451 1 month ago#2
Why is he doing this

He actually has negative chance of winning. Is he that averse to being in the House minority in 2023? Is he just a moron?
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Starks 1 month ago#3
He could have held on to his seat for a long time. Good riddance. He's about as moderate as you can get without being a member of the blue dog caucus.
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TheFuzz3451 1 month ago#4
NY 3rd is D +3

Yeah very good chance that flips red, since you're losing the incumbency advantage
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Starks 1 month ago#5
It really depends on what the new district will look like.

Letters plan is less wasted votes but brings NY03 from D+6 to R+4. Names plan only brings it to D+4 but wastes a ton of Republican votes.

It's the difference between the district remaining similar to what it is today or being extended to cover almost the entire north shore of the island. Which would include prime Zeldin territory.

Per 538.
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Takuya Lee 1 month ago#6
TheFuzz3451 posted...
NY 3rd is D +3

Yeah very good chance that flips red, since you're losing the incumbency advantage

I disagree. It'll depend on how the district looks and the turn out. An overall GOP victory is not a certainty next year. At all.
Narutaki was right. This is all Decade's fault.
Starks 1 month ago#7
The Dems got wiped out across the county in November, but a few assembly members in the district survived.

It's not a guaranteed flip.
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#8
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TheFuzz3451 1 month ago#9
"Very good chance" is not remotely the same as "guaranteed" though. I'm allowed to hedge bets, I can't predict the future
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TheFuzz3451 1 month ago#10
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1465353769714077702?s=20

Lmao
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