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  3. Dem. US. Rep. Yarmouth Not Running Again: Canary in Coalmine?

User Info: gatsbyy

gatsbyy
1 month ago#1
I am not a big fan of Chris Cillizza. He believes with John Yarmouth who is Chair of House Budget Committee not running again it’s the canary in the coalmine. Meaning it’s a sign of bad times.

Yarmouth is from Kentucky a very red state. I will guess his seat is a possible flip with him not running. He is also 75 so age could play a factor if his health is not good or if he believes it’s time to retire.

If he is retiring because he believes House will flip and he will no longer be Chairman then that’s not a good sign. He could be overreacting to the threat of House flipping but I would think Yarmouth can make out trends of what’s coming.

Is this a bad sign of him retiring? Anyone know if his seat is a safe democratic seat or likely to flip.
https://apple.news/ArcjnbM4bQ3W-c-E4vyDTXg

User Info: TheFuzz3451

TheFuzz3451
1 month ago#2
It could be, he could also just be old guy who (unlike most of the other dorks in congressional leadership) realizes it's time to pack it up. Whether there's more to it than that is purely speculation, since Yarmuth would never openly state "Yeah Dems are screwed". There's nothing concrete to make of this

More pressing is the district itself. It's safe blue, but Republicans control redistricting and I believe they can hack away at it to make it red and give Rs a full congressional sweep of the state. McConnell opposed this nominally for court challenge reasons but I read somewhere he and Yarmuth have a personal affinity for each other. So with Yarmuth retired McConnell may change his opinion on redistricting and, well, he's the most powerful Republican in the state so...
Yes we're being condescending
Yes that means we're talking down to you

User Info: TheFuzz3451

TheFuzz3451
1 month ago#3
Positive sign: the leading Democrat in the state senate almost immediately declared for the open seat, as in minutes after Yarmuth's announcement. I don't think that would happen if they truly thought that district was getting the gerrymander hammer
Yes we're being condescending
Yes that means we're talking down to you

User Info: Takuya Lee

Takuya Lee
1 month ago#4
TheFuzz3451 posted...
Positive sign: the leading Democrat in the state senate almost immediately declared for the open seat, as in minutes after Yarmuth's announcement. I don't think that would happen if they truly thought that district was getting the gerrymander hammer

Yeah. I think this is just due to age. There are a lot of old people in Congress.
Narutaki was right. This is all Decade's fault.

User Info: K181

K181
1 month ago#5
His district is D+6. Biden won it by over 20 points. Yarmouth will be 75 next November.

Sounds like much ado about nothing. Always possible the KY GOP might gerrymander it, but with a Dem gov they likely have some protections to keep one blue district.

Sometimes people retire. Making a national prognostication from an old guy retiring is eye-rolling.
Irregardless, for all intensive purposes, I could care less.

User Info: BadDecisions

BadDecisions
1 month ago#6
Sad state of affairs that our government is so full of ancient f***s that refuse to retire that people need to speculate on why a 75-year old rich dude might be retiring.

User Info: TheFuzz3451

TheFuzz3451
1 month ago#7
K181 posted...
His district is D+6. Biden won it by over 20 points. Yarmouth will be 75 next November.

Sounds like much ado about nothing. Always possible the KY GOP might gerrymander it, but with a Dem gov they likely have some protections to keep one blue district.

Sometimes people retire. Making a national prognostication from an old guy retiring is eye-rolling.

It's not so much Yarmuth would be worried about losing his seat, personally, just that he's concerned about Dems overall losing the majority and he doesn't want to be the ranking member of his committee.

But that, too, is pure speculation. Even if that were the case he wouldn't publicly admit it, so I don't see a reason to read the tea leaves over this.
Yes we're being condescending
Yes that means we're talking down to you

User Info: Akuryu

Akuryu
1 month ago#8
He probably does believe the House will flip. Most everyone believes the House will flip.

User Info: K181

K181
1 month ago#9
TheFuzz3451 posted...
It's not so much Yarmuth would be worried about losing his seat, personally, just that he's concerned about Dems overall losing the majority and he doesn't want to be the ranking member of his committee.

But that, too, is pure speculation. Even if that were the case he wouldn't publicly admit it, so I don't see a reason to read the tea leaves over this.

I get that, but he’ll be 75. He only has so many years left, a significant committee chairmanship isn’t as much of a draw to everybody as some politicos like to think it is. Maybe if he was on the pathway to a speakership him retiring would be cause for concern, but this just seems like agenda-pushing or clickbaity more than anything else to me as of this moment.
Irregardless, for all intensive purposes, I could care less.

User Info: TonyKojima

TonyKojima
1 month ago#10
Another doomer thread.
Though the XBOX 360 is good in theory, it's hardware limitations say otherwise - Hideo Kojima
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