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  3. Shiny Hunt Dreepy Masuda Method

User Info: robby87

robby87
4 days ago#21
RoboFish posted...
This must be why I only get Dreepy from Surprise Trades.


I got about a dozen apricorn ball pokemon and about a dozen hidden ability pokemon from suprise trade
SW-2888-5635-0683

User Info: ShiroKurom

ShiroKurom
4 days ago#22
Steel_Shadows posted...
ShiroKurom posted...
This means I need every time 400 more if I don‘t get a shiny in 400?
Iam now at 525
No, it's just a probability calculation. Just like every coin flip is 50/50 heads/tails, but it's unlikely you won't get heads if you flip a coin 20 times.

Your next egg has the same chance of being shiny as your 800th egg. It just happens to be more and more unlikely that your huge batch of eggs won't eventually have at least one shiny, but that probability never reaches 1. It's never guaranteed, but it's less likely than likely that a batch of 500 eggs doesn't have at least one shiny. Get it?


Sorry I don‘t get it 😔

User Info: Steel_Shadows

Steel_Shadows
4 days ago#23
ShiroKurom posted...
Sorry I don‘t get it 😔
Your odds per egg don't improve, just like the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads. However, flip a coin 3 times, and while each individual coin flip still has the same odds, if you count up every possible result (heads then two tails, three heads, two tails and a head, etc.), you see you don't get heads at all in 12.5% of the possible outcomes.

I'm applying similar math to hatching a shiny. Every egg had the same odds of being shiny, but if you hatch 400 eggs and properly apply the math, you end up with no shiny in 55ish% of the outcomes. Each egg is independent, so if you hatch another 400 eggs, your odds are still only about 45% that you get a shiny in that whole batch, regardless of the previous batch.
Games are like women, they don't have to be smokin' hawt to make me happy.-Mr_X_Returns
Member of the IRDC, where everything's a dirty joke.

User Info: ShiroKurom

ShiroKurom
4 days ago#24
Oh ok but I have now nearly 600
Should I quit or should I try more?
Because I think 1:628 is not so away from 1:512 with shiny pin..
Or what do you mean?

User Info: Steel_Shadows

Steel_Shadows
3 days ago#25
Do you want a shiny or not? Keep going. I've been lucky enough to get a shiny within two boxes worth of eggs, and unlucky enough to get it with more than 20. Ignore the math nerdiness, I'm just trying to put into perspective how many eggs it takes for a single shiny to even be likely among them.
Games are like women, they don't have to be smokin' hawt to make me happy.-Mr_X_Returns
Member of the IRDC, where everything's a dirty joke.

User Info: Boombam99

Boombam99
3 days ago#26
Does the Masuda method always have the same odds for a shiny no matter what, or does it change with the number of encounters/catches you have of that Pokémon like normal shiny hunting?

User Info: mongopikis

mongopikis
3 days ago#27
Boombam99 posted...
Does the Masuda method always have the same odds for a shiny no matter what, or does it change with the number of encounters/catches you have of that Pokémon like normal shiny hunting?
It increases with a shiny charm to a max of 1/512 but is not affected by pokemon caught/killed. Which is fine, kinda, since 1/512 is as high as normal shiny hunting gets anyway.

User Info: ShiroKurom

ShiroKurom
3 days ago#28
Is it wrong if I put my own Pokémon first and then the foreign Pokémon in the daycare or is it irrelevantly?
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