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User Info: MegalaserLAWS

MegalaserLAWS
1 week ago#141
Button_Masher_Z posted...
I didn’t even perform any math.

Are you disputing that 124k > 45k?
I am disputing that to be a away to calculate life's odds of dying from covid-19. You can look up how they get those odds by using google easy enough and it's complicated enough you will have to.

Also so you should use the provisional deaths number not the possible covid 19 death number. Which is that smaller number I was using earlier. The CDC says it is their most accurate number but they also claim that even that provisional is just those that have guaranteed tested positive for covid 19. Not that they actually died from it and with the extremely elderly pre existing condition age group we are dealing with that's a big deal.
MegalaserLAWS posted...
yet again bad arguements. Quit telling me how you feel and making logic leaps that would make shaggy and scooby doo blush in shame. 1/468 chance of dying from covid, you can catch cancer from too much sunlight.
And here I was thinking I couldn't take you any less seriously. Would just giving up on the conversation really be more embarrassing to you than making posts like this?

MegalaserLAWS posted...
Also so you should use the provisional deaths number not the possible covid 19 death number. Which is that smaller number I was using earlier. The CDC says it is their most accurate number but they also claim that even that provisional is just those that have guaranteed tested positive for covid 19. Not that they actually died from it and with the extremely elderly pre existing condition age group we are dealing with that's a big deal.
Where exactly is this supposed smaller number you keep talking about anyway? You keep saying it's what the CDC is using and yet anywhere you look--including the CDC website--seems to say otherwise.

Either way, this is just about what I expected as a response towards your quoting probabilities being pointed out as a fallacy when compared to the actual numbers: not much of a response at all.
PSN: KPlaysHere
Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverbullet4747
MegalaserLAWS posted...
I am disputing that to be a away to calculate life's odds of dying from covid-19. You can look up how they get those odds by using google easy enough and it's complicated enough you will have to.

Also so you should use the provisional deaths number not the possible covid 19 death number. Which is that smaller number I was using earlier. The CDC says it is their most accurate number but they also claim that even that provisional is just those that have guaranteed tested positive for covid 19. Not that they actually died from it and with the extremely elderly pre existing condition age group we are dealing with that's a big deal.
I’m not talking about odds, I’m talking about to-date deaths. I’m not using any complicated projections, I’m saying what it’s already done, and in half a year, it’s already more than twice as bad as any auto accidents in U.S. history.

And if you want to know how diseases spread, they have the potential to spread exponentially. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1028 2056 4112 8224 16448 etc. Not that specific sequence, but each exposure adds another person who can expose the disease to another person. It spreads faster over time. I don’t need to know the specific numbers to know that it’ll get worse faster. Specific numbers will just show how much faster.

And... there is nothing on the CDC page about provisional deaths that changes any arguments here. 10k fewer death from covid compared to another report from the CDC, and actually it shows closer to a 10% death rate given you catch this thing. I didn’t adjust for the health of the individual, but they’re not reporting that.
Support for optimism: Nearly everyone I meet is some poor sod who doesn't realize what they've got, and I'm the worst offender.
We all learn when we lose it.

User Info: MegalaserLAWS

MegalaserLAWS
1 week ago#144
Button_Masher_Z posted...
I’m not talking about odds, I’m talking about to-date deaths. I’m not using any complicated projections, I’m saying what it’s already done, and in half a year, it’s already more than twice as bad as any auto accidents in U.S. history.

And if you want to know how diseases spread, they have the potential to spread exponentially. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1028 2056 4112 8224 16448 etc. Not that specific sequence, but each exposure adds another person who can expose the disease to another person. It spreads faster over time. I don’t need to know the specific numbers to know that it’ll get worse faster. Specific numbers will just show how much faster.

And... there is nothing on the CDC page about provisional deaths that changes any arguments here. 10k fewer death from covid compared to another report from the CDC, and actually it shows closer to a 10% death rate given you catch this thing. I didn’t adjust for the health of the individual, but they’re not reporting that.
That is an insane claim. Both of you need to quit panicking, look at the numbers. CDC provisional covid 19 deaths. Look it up and read all the the paragraphs beneath it. Quit baselessly drawing conclusions without reading what the CDC actually says the statistic means.

Now ow why don't we just put it on the line. If capcoms next alatreon update includes ATs, then that nearly proves they could of released one during this time. If they don't I'll delete my account, if they do you guys delete your accounts. Why not? You guys obviously hate my guts, why not put it on the line? You guys could virtue signal all day long unopposed if you wanted to. Deal?

MegalaserLAWS posted...
That is an insane claim. Both of you need to quit panicking, look at the numbers. CDC provisional covid 19 deaths. Look it up and read all the the paragraphs beneath it. Quit baselessly drawing conclusions without reading what the CDC actually says the statistic means.

Now ow why don't we just put it on the line. If capcoms next alatreon update includes ATs, then that nearly proves they could of released one during this time. If they don't I'll delete my account, if they do you guys delete your accounts. Why not? You guys obviously hate my guts, why not put it on the line? You guys could virtue signal all day long unopposed if you wanted to. Deal?
No, no they aren't claims we're making up. It's literally the actual death numbers between the 2 things you've been trying to compare and how diseases spread. You're trying way too hard to cling to anything but the numbers that very clearly toss your point out the window.

Also, what the hell is this "put it on the line" nonsense? That has literally nothing to do with anything we've been talking about this whole time. Of all the incoherent...look bud. You're hardly what anyone would call 'opposition' with the poor arguments you've been throwing out here, and nobody hates you--you're just spouting BS and you're being called out on it. That's all. Get out of your feelings lol.
PSN: KPlaysHere
Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverbullet4747
What I'm seeing and what you're saying don't match up. Link your source.

If you want to delete your account, that's your business. There's no point in a bet.
Support for optimism: Nearly everyone I meet is some poor sod who doesn't realize what they've got, and I'm the worst offender.
We all learn when we lose it.

User Info: MegalaserLAWS

MegalaserLAWS
1 week ago#147
Come on you two, if they could finish alatreon AND multiple ATs in this time they could of put out a singular AT in an update earlier.

This insistence of yours to not look up provisional deaths deaths on the CDC website and READ what they blatantly say about their own numbers is astounding. Why keep doing that silver? You look silly. Why do you insist on not looking things up? No link no discussion? Driving is over 4 times more likely to kill an American citizen.
(edited 1 week ago)

User Info: MegalaserLAWS

MegalaserLAWS
1 week ago#148
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5xDsaDVR-zI
MegalaserLAWS posted...
Come on you two, if they could finish AND multiple ATs in this time they could of put out a singular AT in an update earlier.
Not if 'earlier' was during their shutdown period obviously. You don't know how much goes into an AT on average or how much work was left on Alatreon when they shelved development. Whatever the case it's a totally moot point though, so it's whatever.

MegalaserLAWS posted...
This insistence of yours to not look up provisional deaths deaths on the CDC website and READ what they blatantly say about their own numbers is astounding. Why keep doing that silver? You look silly. Why do you insist on not looking things up? No link no discussion? Driving is over 4 times more likely to kill an American citizen.
You're missing the point being made here, either intentionally because you have no response or because you just don't get it. You keep spouting the same things about predicted chances, but you're totally ignoring what the actual numbers show and everything we've mentioned about why the comparison you're clinging to doesn't work. Until you can directly acknowledge those points without trying to swing between repeating yourself and changing the subject, there's not much room for the conversation to move forward.

"dRiViNg Is FoUr TiMeS mOrE lIkElY tO kIlL aN AmErIcAn CiTiZeN!!" Yes, we've heard you spout that irrelevant statistic a dozen times over now, yet covid has still killed more people in 6 months than cars have in the last 3.5 years. It's almost as if you can't directly compare the 2 based just on randomly quoted statistics alone or something.
PSN: KPlaysHere
Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverbullet4747
(edited 1 week ago)

User Info: MegalaserLAWS

MegalaserLAWS
1 week ago#150
silverbullet474 posted...
Not if 'earlier' was during their shutdown period obviously. You don't know how much goes into an AT on average or how much work was left on Alatreon when they shelved development. Whatever the case it's a totally moot point though, so it's whatever.

You're missing the point being made here, either intentionally because you have no response or because you just don't get it. You keep spouting the same things about predicted chances, but you're totally ignoring what the actual numbers show and everything we've mentioned about why the comparison you're clinging to doesn't work. Until you can directly acknowledge those points without trying to swing between repeating yourself and changing the subject, there's not much room for the conversation to move forward.

"dRiViNg Is FoUr TiMeS mOrE lIkElY tO kIlL aN AmErIcAn CiTiZeN!!" Yes, we've heard you spout that irrelevant statistic a dozen times over now, yet covid has still killed more people in 6 months than cars have in the last 3.5 years. It's almost as if you can't directly compare the 2 based just on randomly quoted statistics alone or something.
Ignoring the CDC's death chances now and too scared to make a wager. We are getting a barioth variant too confirmed. That's two monsters and we will just have wait and see how many ATs come along.
CDC says you have .4%(1/250) chance of dying from it if you SHOW symptoms and we know there is a large portion of asymptomatic carries and we know there is a chunk of the population that will just never contract it. Are you just gonna go with how you feel? You feelings based fellows are strange.
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