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  3. ...it seems like cashing in my 7-day right after reset always gives me a Latias

User Info: Taily_Po

Taily_Po
1 month ago#1
...well, for this promo anyway. I know it's RNG, but it's an insane coincidence.
"If I were a ghost, this is certainly the kind of place I'd haunt."
(\/)(\/)|-|

User Info: Xenozoa425

Xenozoa425
1 month ago#2
I've gotten 2 Groudon on my main and 2 Latios on the backup so far.
"Your flesh is a relic, a mere vessel. Hand over your flesh, and a new world awaits you. We demand it."

User Info: ToneDeaf

ToneDeaf
1 month ago#3
Taily_Po posted...
...well, for this promo anyway. I know it's RNG, but it's an insane coincidence.


You've gotten something with 1/4 odds 3 times. That's not insane lol.

User Info: ssbmrocks

ssbmrocks
1 month ago#4
Some people really don’t understand how RNG works.
I ask the important questions.

User Info: Taily_Po

Taily_Po
1 month ago#5
ToneDeaf posted...
Taily_Po posted...
...well, for this promo anyway. I know it's RNG, but it's an insane coincidence.


You've gotten something with 1/4 odds 3 times. That's not insane lol.


7 times out of 7, maybe 8.

ssbmrocks posted...
Some people really don’t understand how RNG works.


See above.
"If I were a ghost, this is certainly the kind of place I'd haunt."
(\/)(\/)|-|
GreedoShootsFirst 1 month ago#6
I know that I've gotten a Groudon once, but it's always a Latias. I don't delete them (yet), and looking back, that one Groudon has been my one interruption to a steak of Latias that dates back to when it was first introduced.

So TC isn't crazy. Now I'm curious, it's 1/4. What are the others, Latias, Latios, Groudon, and Kyogre?
BALTIMORE RAVENS

User Info: UragaanaDie

UragaanaDie
1 month ago#7
Mm... latias steak..

I got a latias my first week then a latios the next, both between midnight and 1am on a Sunday, so it's not as simple as a specific hour and a day. My guess is they're weighted higher than groudon/kyogre like the egg mons are.
And be worn by Radobaan!

User Info: benbeverfaqs

benbeverfaqs
1 month ago#8
It seems the rewards are weighted, just like egg hatches, some are more common than others. Fot the July-August rewards it seems Latias is very common, and Kyogre and Groudon are rare.

Someone posted 1/4 odds. But that is an assumption or guess.

Here is my data for July-August. It's 3/3 Latias. That is a 1/4*4*4 or 1/64 chance if it wasn't weighted. That is already low enough to suspect it might me weighted. If enough people post their rewards since July, odds could be calculated.

July-August 2019 (Latias, Latios, Kyogre, Groudon)
18-7 Latias
12-7 Latias
4-7 Latias

May-June 2019 (Lugia, Ho-oh, Latias, Latios) (data added for comparison/reference)
27-6 Latias
20-6 Shiny Lugia
13-6 Lugia
6-6 Lugia
29-5 Latios
23-5 Ho-oh
15-5 Latios
8-5 Latios

What also doesn't help is that Latias has been a reward since May, and that it has been the worst reward since then. People usually rather have the better Latios, Lugia or Ho-oh, or the much better Kyogre or Groudon. Psychologically speaking negative events are remembered as bigger than positive events, so people are likely to remember their Latios streak.

User Info: galeongirl

galeongirl
1 month ago#9
... conformation bias really is strong here.

A ONE person experience is nowhere near enough evidence to base an opinion on if something is weighted or not.

Come back when your n = large enough to be representative. Until then, it's a random 1/4 chance.

User Info: benbeverfaqs

benbeverfaqs
1 month ago#10
galeongirl posted...
... conformation bias really is strong here. A ONE person experience is nowhere near enough evidence to base an opinion on if something is weighted or not. Come back when your n = large enough to be representative. Until then, it's a random 1/4 chance.

One person got a 7 Latias streak, which means 3/3 Latias in this Quest Breakthrough period.
One person reports 1 Groudon and the rest Latias, which means 2/3 Latias this period.
One person reports 1 Latias and 1 Latios, so 1/2.
One person reports 3 Latias this period, so 3/3.

One Person getting a 3 Latias streak out of 4 possible pokémon is a chance of 1/64, or 1/16 for each pokémon. That's small enough of a chance to suspect a weighted balance. Four persons getting 9 Latios out of 11 pokémon suggest a weighted balance, that chance, if it was an even 1/4, is really small.
I saw people on Reddit talking about weighted Latios chances, and Latios streaks, as well.

The random 1/4 chance is an assumption. An even chance was never announced or confirmed by Niantic. In fact, the 1/4 chance is the only bias in this topic.

A suspicon that something might be weighted is not "confirmation bias"
Here is what confirmation bias actually means:
A confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias that involves favoring information that confirms your previously existing beliefs or biases.

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
  1. Boards
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  3. ...it seems like cashing in my 7-day right after reset always gives me a Latias
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