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  3. Awards Season General Discussion Topic

User Info: thesmark

thesmark
1 week ago#1
Well, most everything at TIFF has already premiered (the exceptions being Harriet and Lucy in the Sky over the next two days), so it feels like as good a time as any to start this topic. Some kickoff questions:

-What do you think will win the coveted Audience Award at TIFF?
-We don't know exactly how many, but or the sake of this, what 9 films do you think will be nominated for Best Picture this year?

TIFF Audience Award Winner: Parasite (2nd Place: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood; 3rd Place: The Two Popes)

Best Picture Nominees (in alphabetical order):

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Waves
My unending quest to review all 554 Best Picture Nominees: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/227-movies-at-the-theater/77413506
Duke/Stanford/GSW/A's/Raiders

User Info: rockus

rockus
1 week ago#2
Early Best Picture predictions

1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Ford v. Ferrari
A Hidden Life
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Report
http://thetramp.filmaf.com/owned
http://ReelFilmTome.com

User Info: BigLargeHuge

BigLargeHuge
1 week ago#3
I'm really bad at predicting but here we go

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Hustlers
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Two Popes

I know it seems crazy not to predict The Irishman since it's got so much prestige and pre-release hype attached to it that it's basically already rounding third base, but I figure something's gotta give, and maybe this year it's the 210 minute dirge-like gangster movie that gets left out.

Ford v Ferrari is coming out early enough in the season that it'll need to make its budget back in order to be perceived a success, and I'm not convinced it will. It should get some below the line noms though.

I'm curious about Queen & Slim. I almost want to predict it, but there's just not enough to go on.
cabbage
(edited 1 week ago)

User Info: thesmark

thesmark
1 week ago#4
Harriet got exactly the reviews you would expect: Cynthia Erivo is very good, but the movie as a whole is a middling biopic.

On The Farewell: it's really hard for a film released July that made $16 million to get nominated for Best Picture-basically, the exact same situation Eighth Grade was in last year from the same studio. That's the only one of these that feels really unlikely, even if I could see nominations for Actress, Supporting Actress and maybe Screenplay. That, and A24 has a lot on their campaign plate: Waves was a big emotional crowd-pleaser at Telluride and TIFF and could be their big play, Sandler for Uncut Gems and Dafoe for The Lighthouse are all possibilities. However, they can only realistically focus on two or maybe three of the four.

Hustlers: if it's a big box office hit, then it's got a shot. It's running in a pretty clear weekend given how bad The Goldfinch bombed in Toronto, will be interesting to see how it does.

A Hidden Life: an interesting example of how Best Picture nominations work: the key is to get a small group of people who love your movie and vote it first, having a bunch of people voting it 3rd or 4th doesn't really help. Malick has enough stans that it could break through, although
My unending quest to review all 554 Best Picture Nominees: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/227-movies-at-the-theater/77413506
Duke/Stanford/GSW/A's/Raiders
(edited 1 week ago)

User Info: BigLargeHuge

BigLargeHuge
6 days ago#5
Eighth Grade is probably a good comparison, but for some reason it just feels like The Farewell has a better shot this year. I think the film will do consistently well with the critics groups, which will keep it comfortably in the running through the end of the year. It’s got uniform critical adoration without any of the downer “art movie” baggage of First Reformed, or even the sometimes uncomfortable anxiety of Eighth Grade. It benefits from being really easy to watch and almost impossible not to be moved by. People used to characterize the tastes of the Academy by the kinds of movie they assumed the Ernest Borgnines of the world would like, but I think it’s increasingly important to consider the kinds of movies that, say, the Rachel McAdams’ of the world would like. And I figure The Farewell is probably Rachel McAdams’ favorite movie of the year.

Any early winner predictions? Once Upon a Time is comfortably in the lead in most categories with the GoldDerby users at the moment. Outside of Pitt, I don’t actually expect the movie to do very well with the critics groups (some of the major NYC critics are cool on it, and there’s a lot of overlap between them and the NSFC), but it’ll surely be an industry favorite. It feels like a slam dunk in Supporting Actor and Production Design at the very least, and I could see Tarantino winning Best Director even if something else wins Best Picture. Besides The Irishman, I guess. If The Irishman wins BP, there’s no way Scorsese isn’t winning BD.
cabbage
(edited 6 days ago)
I'm very curious about how The Irishman is received. How funny would it be if Netflix dumps all their money into this film and it loses to...Marriage Story?

There's a lot I still need to see.
Do not look at the faces in the illustrated papers. Look at the faces in the street.

User Info: Step_In

Step_In
6 days ago#7
Thinking it will be (which means this is definitely wrong):

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joker
The Irishman
Parasite
The Farewell
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
---
Us / Ford v Ferrari / Bombshell / The Two Popes

Watch Jojo Rabbit win the Audience Award.
Suspect is hatless! Repeat, hatless!
(edited 6 days ago)

User Info: thesmark

thesmark
3 days ago#8
Another thing I always like to look at is what each studio has to work with going into awards season; especially for smaller studios, you have to really concentrate on one film as your big play and maybe a second for individual performances/screenplay. Here's what everybody has that has at least some shot for a Big 5 category:

Disney (Disney/Pixar/Fox/Fox Searchlight)

Ford v. Ferrari (Fox)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight)

Warner Bros.

Joker
Just Mercy

Sony (Sony/Columbia/SPC/Tristar)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Columbia)
Little Women (Columbia)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tristar)
Pain and Glory (SPC)

Universal

1917
Queen & Slim

Netflix

The Irishman
Marriage Story
The Two Popes
Dolemite is My Name

A24

The Farewell
Waves
The Lighthouse
Uncut Gems

Neon

Parasite
Clemency

Focus Features

Harriet
Dark Waters

Lionsgate

Bombshell
Knives Out

Amazon

The Report

STX

Hustlers

Roadside Attractions

Judy

A couple of things jump out immediately:

-Holy crap, Sony has a STRONG slate of films going into awards season-3 potential Best Picture nominees and a Best Actor/Best International Film nominee. Really interesting choices here for them, I think at least one of those four might get shuttled to the side; that, and with the Oscars moving up to early February, Little Women (a Christmas release) might have a tougher time breaking through the crowd unless they get screeners out way earlier.
-Netflix has a strong group, although they have a ton of resources and in a good position choice wise: 2 across the board contenders assuming The Irishman delivers and two movies where you can just focus on Best Actor.
-A24 is probably choosing between Waves and The Farewell as their big play, with their other two films going for acting categories
-With Just Mercy flopping at TIFF, it's all steam ahead with Joker for WB
-Ford v. Ferrari actually got very soft reviews at TIFF (down to 88%, 6.9 average on RT), but if it does well at the box office it's still Disney's strongest play...unless they think a small but very dedicated group loves Jojo Rabbit, enough for a BP nom.
-Universal has only two contenders and nobody has seen either of them yet. Hard to say about them.
-Neon quietly has a stellar fall lineup with the above two films and Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
My unending quest to review all 554 Best Picture Nominees: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/227-movies-at-the-theater/77413506
Duke/Stanford/GSW/A's/Raiders

User Info: thesmark

thesmark
2 days ago#9
TIFF Audience Award Winner is Jojo Rabbit! I had a sneaking suspicion today that it was going to win the audience award-critics wanted one thing out of it, but it feels like a movie that plays much more to a wide audience. Critics wanted something harder hitting and more biting, while audiences wanted something more comforting.

Audience Award: Jojo Rabbit
2nd Place: Marriage Story
3rd Place: Parasite
My unending quest to review all 554 Best Picture Nominees: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/227-movies-at-the-theater/77413506
Duke/Stanford/GSW/A's/Raiders
(edited 2 days ago)
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