Since I've updated the game on my SD card, I couldn't hatch any shinies. Does the update lock shiny eggs? spunky07216 - 3 months ago
Top Voted Answer
How many eggs have you hatched? It might be worth remembering that the probability of an Egg being Shiny (without modifiers) is 1 in 4096 (about 0.02%). It's 18 in 4096 (about 1 in 228 or 0.43%) if you have the Shiny Charm and use the Masuda Method.
You could use a binomial probability calculator to find the probability of at least X Shiny Eggs in Y hatches. Here's one:
Even at 5,000 Eggs, without modifiers, your odds of at least one being Shiny (denoted "P(X >= x)" in that calculator) are only about 70%. It takes roughly 10,000 Eggs to assure at least 1 Shiny with over 90% probability, about 12,500 with 95%, and about 20,000 with 99%.
With Shiny Charm and Masuda Method, your odds are only roughly 50% at 150 Eggs, 70% at 250-300, 90% at about 550, 95% at about 700, and 99% at about 1,100.
It's mostly a matter of luck. Notice how the probability unmodified seems to be like "on average, you get a Shiny every 4,096 eggs". Well, yes, but that's on average, like if you hatched infinitely many Eggs: to be able to get at least 1 Shiny over 90% of the time, you'd have to hatch over twice that at 10,000 Eggs.
Similarly, with the higher rates owing to the Shiny Charm and Masuda Method, you seem to be able to get a Shiny every 228 eggs, but that's on average. To be able to get one or more 90% of the time, you need to hatch about 2.5 times that.
Probability can be weird and unintuitive like that.
I honestly have my doubts that you hatched too many Eggs; most people really underestimate the amount of time and effort that goes into breeding for Shinies, as you can see from the above.
Also, merely the notion of Game Freak arbitrarily Shiny Locking Eggs in an update is just one I find ridiculous, given there's literally no reason to do so other than to piss people off.
But of course, no, they didn't Shiny Lock it. >_>
You'll just have to keep trying. Eevee-Trainer (Expert) - 3 months ago
Well. I'm breeding Zorua, and I've lost count. I'm releasing ones with poor Natures and Wondertrading ones with good ones. Maybe I'll have better luck with the Fishing Chain. What method is this again? spunky07216 - 3 months ago
The Masuda Method is breeding two Pokemon from different real world regions - for example, Pokemon from Japan and from the US. It increases the likelihood you'll find a Shiny Pokemon by six times. Eevee-Trainer (Expert) - 3 months ago
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